Signal Syndicate Performance Ledger

Live settlement tracking · updated daily after settlement (≈09:30 UTC)

🟢 Hero = LIVE models only (1746 graded). Combined all-models ledger incl. shadow: 1124-613-9 · +11.96u — shadow tracked in its own cards below.

1746Total Signals
1124-613-9 (64.7%)W-L-P
+0.68%ROI
+11.96uUnits

Cumulative units equity curve (live models)

Active Models

Shadow & Research Lanes

Run Lines
PAUSED
125-76-1
W-L-P
62.2%
Win Rate
+17.87%
ROI
+36.09u
Units
n=202
Sample
Backtest: +1.77% ROI (n=998, 2024-2026)

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

Hits Props OVER
🟡 SHADOW
243-169-0
W-L-P
59.0%
Win Rate
-8.65%
ROI
-35.65u
Units
n=412
Sample
Backtest: +13.32% ROI (n=2235, 2024-2026)

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

Hits Props UNDER
🟡 SHADOW
665-291-0
W-L-P
69.6%
Win Rate
+0.62%
ROI
+5.92u
Units
n=956
Sample
Backtest: +66.44% ROI (n=880, 2024-2026)

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

MLB Totals UNDER
RETIRED
12-3-2
W-L-P
80.0%
Win Rate
+46.52%
ROI
+7.91u
Units
n=17
Sample
Backtest: +4.52% ROI (n=981, 2024-2026)

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

F5 Innings
🟡 SHADOW
42-39-0
W-L-P
51.9%
Win Rate
-1.01%
ROI
-0.82u
Units
n=81
Sample
Backtest: +13.21% ROI (n=86, 2026)

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

NFL Spreads
🟡 SHADOW
19-13-2
W-L-P
59.4%
Win Rate
+12.20%
ROI
+4.15u
Units
n=34
Sample

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

NFL Totals
🟡 SHADOW
18-22-4
W-L-P
45.0%
Win Rate
-12.81%
ROI
-5.64u
Units
n=44
Sample

Shadow / research lane — live track record shown for transparency; not promoted to the public board yet.

Why some lanes publish nothing: MLB Totals UNDER has produced zero promoted signals since 2026-07-27 — its edge cap filters every candidate out, and we would rather publish silence than noise. A shadow lane earns promotion only through backtest, holdout, and forward-shadow gates (see the August 2026 methodology in the Research Library). Silence is a result, not a gap.

View Full Performance Dashboard →

Performance by Period

The same settled ledger broken down by year, month, week, and day. Every figure is computed from the append-only pick history — no cherry-picking.

2026 · By Model

Period W-L-P Win % ROI Units n
Run Lines 125-76-1 62.2% +17.87% +36.09u 202
Hits Props OVER 243-169-0 59.0% -8.65% -35.65u 412
Hits Props UNDER 665-291-0 69.6% +0.62% +5.92u 956
MLB Totals UNDER 12-3-2 80.0% +46.52% +7.91u 17
F5 Innings 42-39-0 51.9% -1.01% -0.82u 81
NFL Spreads 19-13-2 59.4% +12.20% +4.15u 34
NFL Totals 18-22-4 45.0% -12.81% -5.64u 44
Portfolio (all models) 1124-613-9 64.7% +0.68% +11.96u 1746

2026 · Monthly

Period W-L-P Win % ROI Units n
2026-07 42-25-3 62.7% +16.41% +11.49u 70
2026-08 458-243-0 65.3% +3.70% +25.92u 701
2026-09 583-323-3 64.3% -3.40% -30.94u 909
2026-10 41-22-3 65.1% +8.33% +5.50u 66

2026 · Weekly (recent)

Period W-L-P Win % ROI Units n
2026-W42 5-5-0 50.0% -26.53% -2.65u 10
2026-W41 21-7-2 75.0% +24.93% +7.48u 30
2026-W40 23-14-3 62.2% -0.66% -0.26u 40
2026-W39 131-83-0 61.2% -8.03% -17.18u 214
2026-W38 178-87-0 67.2% +1.52% +4.03u 265
2026-W37 129-74-1 63.5% -5.02% -10.24u 204

Daily Ledger · Last 7 Settled Days

2026-10-15 1-1-0 -0.55u
Hits Props OVER Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians Chandler Simpson OVER 0.5 WIN +0.45u
Hits Props OVER Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians Chase DeLauter OVER 0.5 LOSS -1.00u
2026-10-14 1-1-0 -0.52u
Hits Props OVER Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 WIN +0.48u
Hits Props OVER Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers Andy Pages OVER 0.5 LOSS -1.00u
2026-10-13 3-0-0 +1.42u
Hits Props OVER Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays Chase DeLauter OVER 0.5 WIN +0.53u
Hits Props OVER Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays Chandler Simpson OVER 0.5 WIN +0.49u
Hits Props UNDER Cleveland Guardians @ Tampa Bay Rays Yandy Diaz UNDER 1.5 WIN +0.40u
2026-10-12 0-3-0 -3.00u
Hits Props OVER Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 LOSS -1.00u
Hits Props OVER Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers Andy Pages OVER 0.5 LOSS -1.00u
NFL Totals Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams UNDER 54.5 LOSS -1.00u
2026-10-11 9-5-1 +2.50u
Hits Props OVER Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers Andy Pages OVER 0.5 WIN +0.74u
Hits Props OVER Los Angeles Dodgers @ Milwaukee Brewers Jackson Chourio OVER 0.5 WIN +0.48u
NFL Spreads Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons AWAY -3.5 WIN +0.83u
NFL Spreads Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins HOME 7.0 PUSH +0.00u
NFL Spreads Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets AWAY -2.5 LOSS -1.00u
NFL Spreads Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers AWAY -2.5 LOSS -1.00u
NFL Spreads Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots HOME -3.5 WIN +0.91u
NFL Spreads New York Giants @ Washington Commanders AWAY -3.5 WIN +0.91u
NFL Spreads Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars AWAY -8.0 WIN +0.91u
NFL Totals Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins OVER 44.0 WIN +0.91u
NFL Totals Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals UNDER 54.5 LOSS -1.00u
NFL Totals Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans OVER 38.0 LOSS -1.00u
NFL Totals Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 43.5 WIN +0.91u
NFL Totals Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots UNDER 45.0 LOSS -1.00u
NFL Totals New York Giants @ Washington Commanders OVER 41.5 WIN +0.91u
2026-10-10 1-0-0 +0.48u
Hits Props OVER Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians Chase DeLauter OVER 0.5 WIN +0.48u
2026-10-08 3-0-0 +2.28u
Hits Props OVER Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox Chase DeLauter OVER 0.5 WIN +0.48u
NFL Spreads Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys AWAY -8.0 WIN +0.89u
NFL Totals Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys UNDER 48.0 WIN +0.91u

Methodology & Transparency

  • Every settled pick is recorded in a public, append-only ledger and graded WIN / LOSS / PUSH at 1.0u staked at the real market odds we posted at entry — never flat -110 assumptions.
  • Models are promoted only after passing backtest → holdout → shadow forward validation. Shadow lanes are shown but clearly labelled.
  • Retired lanes (K Props, Run Lines home/all underdogs, Totals OVER, unfiltered Hits Props) are excluded from this page entirely.
  • Player projections are scored like a quant desk, not a tout: bias ≈ 0, level ratio ≈ 1.0, error vs naive baselines, and alpha vs the market line — directional-vs-season vanity metrics are retired. See the August 2026 Projection Audit and why we killed directional accuracy.
  • Validation is walk-forward with a frozen holdout (weights chosen on past data only, scored once on unseen data); errors are block-bootstrapped by game-day. Full protocol in the Research Library.
Read Full Methodology → Download CSV →

Research validation only — not live P&L, not betting advice. Expected monthly volatility ±5%; short-term drawdowns are within normal range.